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MARKET TREND Mixed CZ down 1,SF up 1, WZ down 1

November 14, 2017 07:37 AM

HIGHLIGHT

·       MARKET TREND—Mixed: CZ: down $.005; SF: up $.015; WZ: down $.0025; KWZ: down $.0125. 

·       MACRO.  World stocks are mixed overnight with disappointing economic data from China weighing on shares in Asia.  ASIA—Mostly lower:  Nikkei, unch; Shanghai, -0.50%; Hang Seng, -0.10%.  EUROPE: Mixed: DAX, -0.04%; FTSE, +0.13%; CAC, -0.12%.   WALL STREET—Futures are mixed—DOW, -2 S&P, -2.00; NAS, +4.50.  EXTERNALS: $ Index-.243@ 94.145; Gold-$3.96 @ $1,273; Dec crude: -$0.27 @ $56.49/bl. 

·       T-storm Weather: In the U.S., numerous systems pass over the next 10 to 14 days, but a lack of humidity keeps cattle and HRW wheat in the central and southern Plains dry, instead focusing rain and some snow on the Corn Belt / Delta and points east. Temperatures fluctuate with a wide range through the period, but ultimately averaging near-normal in key cattle and HRW wheat areas of the central and southern Plains, but colder than normal with eastward extent.

·       CZ, down $.005 @ $3.4175; CH, down $.0075 @ $3.5425.  Funds sold 6 K on Monday  

·       SF, up $.015 @ $9.7575; SH, up $.015 @ $9.87.  Funds: Sold 7 K SB, 4 SBM and 6 SBO.  Deliveries were 150 today

·       WZ, down $.0025 @ $4.24; WH, down $.02 @ $4.4125.  The funds sold 5 K on Monday    

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn harvest is 83% v. 92% last year and the 5-year avg. of 91%

·       T-storm Weather: A swath of dryness exists in some key corn areas of central Argentina, and most will remain dry the next 10 days or longer.  However, temps will plummet on Wed. & remain cool for 7-10 days limiting evaporation rates  

·       Consultant: Brazil corn production estimate for 2017/18 is unchanged this week at 88.0 MMT vs. 98.5 MMT last year

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 17/18 U.S. corn 2.511 bbu versus November USDA est. of 2.487

·       U.S. sorghum harvest progress is 83% vs. 89% last year and the 5-year avg. of 87%

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean harvest is 93% vs. 96% last year and behind the 5-year average of 95%

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 17/18 U.S. soybean 0.444 bbu versus November USDA est. of 0.425

·       T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms linger in northern areas of Brazil over the next few days.  Mainly dry weather occurs elsewhere in Brazil until heavy thunderstorms arrive Fri.-Mon., followed by additional rain next week

·       Consultant: Brazil soybean production est. for 2017/18 is steady this week at 107.0 MMT vs. 114815 MMT last year

·       U.S. winter wheat crop condition ratings peg Good/Excellent at 54% vs. 55% last week and v. 59% last year

·       T-storm Weather: A wetter period begins today-Wed. from South Australia and points east, slowing wheat harvest

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLZ17-$.27 @ $56.49; EBF, -$0.34 @ $62.82; EBF-QCLZ, -$0.07; RBZ-.0155;NGZ, -.060; HOZ, +.0047

·       Cash ethanol markets were steady to lower on Monday: Chicago is quoted at $1.42, down $0.01; Basis to Chicago—New York, +9 ½; Gulf, +6; Dallas, -½; Tampa, +13 ¼; and LA, +16

·       Ethanol RINs declined on Mon.: 2016’s fell 3 ¼ to 83-86; 2017’s off 2 ¼ to 85-88; & 2018’s eased 2 ¼ to 84 ½-87 ½

·       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is trading at +$.33490/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                ​;     

·       Choice boxed beef values declined $1.04 on Monday to $212.81, but are still $2.24 higher vs. a week ago

·       5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price dn $0.82 v. last week at $122.71/cwt, but is $19.01 higher v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 50-cents on Monday to $80.48, but is still up $1.31 vs. last week 

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $40.62/cwt vs. last week’s $42.11, last month’s $36.82 & last year’s $25.13

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

 

Brian Basting 
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com 
http://www.advance-trading.com

 



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