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MARKET TREND Lower CU Down 1, SU Down 4, WU Down 8

August 29, 2016 07:08 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Lower--CU: Down $.0050; SU: Down $.0475; WU: Down $.08; KWU: Down $.06

·        MACRO:  Global equity markets are generally lower—concerns about subsequent U.S. rate hikes from the Fed.  ASIA:  Nikkei, up 2.3% on weakness in the yen;  Shanghai, flat; Hang Seng, down .04%.  EUROPE:  Mostly lower—CAC, -1.03%; DAX, -.80%;  FTSE, +.31%.   WALL STREET: Futures are lower—DOW, -5; S&P, -0.25; NAS, -1.00.   EXTERNALS:  $ Index, +.078 @ 95.62; Gold is pff $5.40 @ $1,317.20; Oct Crude is -$.67 @ $46.97/bl

·        T-storm Weather: Unseasonably warm & muggy upper-level high pressure dominates the central U.S. through Tue.  Isolated thunderstorms dot varying areas through then, but well-organized rainfall of 0.50” to 1.50” generally focuses on the central & southern Plains.  Rain will attempt to move across the Corn Belt Tue.-Wed., but is unlikely to move past Iowa-Missouri.  Less than 0.50” of rain occurs in most of the central U.S. through Fri. with driest overall conditions in northern areas of Corn Belt & Plains

·        Corn: CU Down $.0050 @ $3.1575; CZ Down $.0025 @ $3.2475  The funds unloaded Friday, selling 20 K 

·        SB:  SU Dn $.0475 @ $9.86; SX Dn $.0275 @ $9.6450.  Funds: sold 15K SB; 6SBM; and 3K SBO.  Sep crush, +$.01, $.78; LY: $1.20

·        Wheat:  WU Down $.8 @ $3.7550; WZ Down $.07 @ $4.0050.  The funds were sellers of an estimated 8 K Friday

CORN/SORGHUM

·        December 2016 corn futures closed at $3.25 on Friday—the lowest settlement price for the life of the contract

·        USDA Crop Progress: Good/Excellent U.S. corn rating could be a point higher or a point lower vs. last week’s 75%; regardless, it would be above 68% in 2015.  Sorghum coloring as of Aug. 28 was 55% last year and 5-year avg. is 51% 

·        T-storm Weather: A strong cool front sweeps across the U.S. northern Plains & Corn Belt Tue.-Wed. breaking warmth.  The front also limits westward movement & organization of the expected tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 58.5 mbu needed; 49.2 last week.  Milo—4.3 needed; 2.0 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        USDA Crop Progress: Good/Excellent U.S. soybean rating could steady vs. last week’s 72% but still above 63% in ‘15

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 5.0 needed; 35.3 last week

·        T-storm Weather: Coolness breaks Fri.-Sat. with maximums in 80s-90s for extended period.  Thunderstorms develop across central/northern Plans & northwest half of Corn Belt where above-normal rain occurs; less to south & east

·        Chi. Sept. 2016 wheat futures closed at $3.83 ½ Fri.—1st time nearby futures settled below $4.00 since Sept. 18, 2006

·        USDA Crop Progress: U.S. spring wheat harvest est. at 80-85% vs. approx. 84% last year and 62% for the 5-year avg.

·        Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Wheat, 17.8 needed; 19.5 last week

ENERGY

·        Lower:  CLV16, -$0.67, $46.97; EBV,-$0.76; EBV-CLV, $2.19, -$.09; RBV, -.0201; NGV, -.031; HOV, -$.0180

·        Modest gains were posted in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago up 3/8; New York and Gulf added ¼; Tampa increased 1; Dallas climbed ½; and LA was 1 higher at $1.60 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs eased: 2014’s down 1 at 90 ¾-92 ¼; 2015’s off 7/8 90 ¾-92 ½; and 2016’s declined 1 to 90 ½-92

·        The Sep RBOB/Sep ethanol spread widened $.0074 to +.0708/gallon Friday

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                   &nbs​p;                 

&middo​t;        Choice boxed beef values fell 88-cents on Friday to $199.48, and are down 59-cents vs. a week ago

·        Scattered cash cattle sales were noted on Friday in parts of the North at prices $3 to $7 lower than seen on Wed.

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 18-cents lower on Friday at $75.32 but is still up $1.61 vs. last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.14 on Fri. at $66.90.  October futures added $2.625 but are $5.575 below the index

: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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