HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Lower: CU: down $.0250; SQ: down $.0050; WU: down $.0250; KWU: down $.0475
· MACRO: Global markets are mixed, following Friday’snew highs in NY; Q2 PRC growth at 6.9%, above forecasts. ASIA—Higher: Nikkei, closed; Shanghai, -1.42%; Hang Seng, +0.31%. EUROPE: Mostly higher—DAX, -0.17%; FTSE, +0.57%; CAC, +0.07%. WALL STREET—Futures, firm—DOW, +20; S&P, +2.00 NAS, +10. EXTERNALS: $ Index:+.065 @ 95.955; Aug Gold: +$1.70 @ $1,230; Sep crude:+$.11@ $46.86/bl. Del’ys: SBM, 25; SBO, 94; RR, 9; C, 147; ETOH, 0; HRW, 65; SB, 40; SRW, 0
· T-storm Weather: Heat affects the southwest third to half of the central U.S. over the next week with maximums in at least the mid-90s for one-third to one-half of corn & soy. Numerous waves flow along the edge of heat, causing thunderstorms to focus on the northeast two-thirds of the Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the central and northern Plains over today-Sat. followed by scattered rain to the south July 23-25; 0.50”-1.50” for most corn and soybeans, higher amounts of 1.50”-3.00” in MN & WI
· CU, down $.0250 @ $3.7375; CZ, down $.04 @ $3.8650. Fund buying on Friday was estimated at 7 K
· SQ, down $.0025 @ $9.8875; SX, down $.0050 @ $9.9225. Funds: bought 5 K SB, 4 SBM, 1 SBO. Board Crush: $.89, +1; LY, $.80
· WU, down $.0250 @ $5.0825; WZ, down $.0275 @ $5.32. The funds were even in Friday’s trade
CORN/SORGHUM
· Consultant: Today’s USDA Crop Progress report is expected to peg U.S. corn Good/Excellent at 64-66% compared to 65% last week and 76% last year
· ATI Research: The 5-year average for U.S. corn silking increases approx. 20% from July 9-16 to 47%
· T-storm Weather: Uncertainty is very high for U.S. weather from July 25 forward with the location of the high critical, but very difficult to determine. A drier-warmer period is most probable, but it will take many days to determine
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 33.3 mbu needed; 39.8 last week. Milo—2.8 needed; 4.4 last week
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Today’s USDA Crop Progress report is expected to peg U.S. soybean Good/Excellent at 61-63% compared to 62% last week and 71% last year
· ATI Research: The 5-year average for U.S. soybean blooming increases approx. 19% from July 9-16 to 51%
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 19.1 mbu needed; 17.5 last week
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.1 mbu needed; 19.6 last week
· ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. winter wheat harvest progress increases approx. 8% from July 9-16 to 73%
· T-storm Weather: Rainfall amounts of 0.50”-1.50” affect ~40% of U.S. spring wheat July 17-25
ENERGY
· Up: CLU17, +$0.11 @ $46.86; EBU, +$0.20 @ $49.11;EBU-QCLU, +.09; RBU, +.0009; NGU, +.027; HOU, +.0029
· A firmer trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago and Gulf gained 1 ¾; New York added 2 1/8; Tampa and Dallas increased 1 ½; and LA was 4 higher at $1.80 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were higher on Friday: 2016’s and 2017’s climbed 2 ¾ to 76 ½-79
· The Aug RBOB/Aug ethanol spread widened further on Friday, up $.0085 to +$.02250/gallon, premium ETOH
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
· Choice boxed beef values eased 50-cents on Friday to $209.35, and are $9.49 lower compared to a week ago
· August live cattle futures on Friday closed at $117.80, the highest settlement price for the contract since June 26
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed 69-centson Friday to $103.97, but is still down 70-cents vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.06 on Fri. to $92.78. July futures declined $0.15 and are $0.18 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather