HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 3 ¾; Soybeans, SN down 4 ¾; WN, Up 1-2; KWN, Up 3-4
· Asia recovers some composure—Shanghai bounced back 5.5%; Japan’s Nikkei edges up .6% and the Hang Seng rose 1.1% overnight. Europe is off its lows as prospects for an agreement with Greece seem to be improving: FTSE, -.40%; DAX, +.02%; CAC 40, +.07%. Still, there is the IMF payment deadline. Dead cat bounce after Wall Street’s worst day of the year? DOW futures up 72; S&P, 10 ¾ higher; NAS, up 15+. Puerto Rico next? $ Index, +.400; energies, firmer; gold, -$5.30 at $1,173.50 on the August
· T-storm Weather: Temperatures average 2-4 degrees cooler-than-normal across the Corn Belt over the next week. Waves of energy rotate through the cool air mass into the weekend, focusing pockets of rain and thunderstorms on the southeast third of the Corn Belt and adjacent areas of the Delta. Rain is unneeded in this region because it accounts for much of the reason that 16%, 18%, and 20% of U.S. corn, soybean, and SRW wheat production received at least 10.00" over the last 30 days
· July Corn Up $.0375 at $3.87; Sep Up $.0175 at $3.9375. The funds bought 3 K to open the week
· July SB Down $.0475 at $9.9775; Aug Down $.0725 at $9.8725. The funds: even on SB; bought 1 K SBM, even on SBO
· Wheat Up $.0150 at $5.82; Sep Up $.0150 at $5.85. Weather encourages funds to buy 10 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM ;      
· USDA Acreage, Grain Stocks reports to be released at 11:00 am CDT: Trade pegging updated U.S. corn acreage at 89.1 mil; June 1 corn stocks est at 4.557 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 23 mbu vs. last week to 1.925 bbu; 15/16 dn 115 to 1.730
· USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent corn crop ratings down 3 points to 68% with ATI crop est. at 13.440 bbu
· USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent sorghum crop ratings steady at 68% with ATI crop est. at 416 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Forecasted setup this weekend allows a warmer pattern to develop. This is why we are forecasting widespread coverage of near-average rain July 5-11, & a moderate chance for above-average rain across the Corn Belt
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA reports at 11:00: Trade puts updated U.S. soybean acreage at 85.3 mil; June 1 soybean stocks est. at 679 mbu
· ATI Research: Updated U.S. soybean balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 5 mbu to 291; 15/16 dn 24 mil at 325 mbu
· USDA Crop Progress pegs Good/Excellent soybean crop ratings down 2 points to 63% with ATI crop est. at 3.699 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. HRS wheat balance sheet, 14/15 carryout at 202 mbu; 15/16 carryout is forecast at 234 mbu
· USDA reports at 11:00: Trade puts updated U.S. all wheat acreage at 55.7 mil; June 1 all wheat stocks est at 712 mbu
ENERGY
· Firmer: CLQ15, +0.34, $58.67; EBQ, +0.79; EBQ-CLQ, +4.11, +$.43, RBQ, +$.0204; NGQ, -$.004; HOQ, +$.0217
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Monday: Chicago added 1/8; New York climbed 1 1/2; Gulf and Tampa down 2 ½; Dallas eased ½; and LA was ¼ higher at $1.72 ¼ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs for 2013, 2014 and 2015 were all quoted in a 46 ½ to 47 ¼ range on Monday, down $.0012/gallon
· The July RBOB/July Ethanol spread was little changed on Monday at $.4663/gallon, in 1/3rd of a cent
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values were up 10-cents on Monday at $253.22 and are 18-cents higher vs. a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price declined $1.45 last week to $148.79/cwt & is down $5.53 vs. last year
· On Monday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained 38-cents, but at $81.72 is still down $1.73 vs. the prior week
· CME Lean Hog Index down $0.49 at $77.64. July futures were $1.20 lower at $74.25 and are $3.39 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather