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Market Trend Corn, CK Down 1, Soybeans, SK Up 2 , Wheat, WK Up 2

March 30, 2015 07:08 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, CK Down 1/4; Soybeans, SK Up 2 ½;  Wheat, WK Up 2

·         Yellen’s comments on Friday indicate caution is the norm regarding future interest rate hikes.  Asia responds favorably:  Nikkei, +.65%; Shanghai, +2.62% and the Hang Seng, +1.51%.  China to introduce new stimulus measures—People’s Bank of China governor.  Europe is higher at mid-day:  DAX, +1.43%; CAC 40, +1.09%; FTSE, +.47%.  U.S. stocks futures are decidedly positive:  DOW, +105; S&P 500, +11.5; NAS, +32.7.  Externals:  $ Index, +.415 @ 98.40; gold , -$12.50 @ $1,187.30 and energies, weaker

·         T-storm Weather: Above-average warmth focuses on HRW wheat areas of the central and southern Plains over much of the next 10-14 days.  The sharp north-south temperature gradient forces the jet stream to send several waves of energy through the central U.S. -- beginning as early as Tuesday, but more-so every few days from around Thursday (April 2) forward.  Rain chances exist in all areas with this setup, but are highest across the Corn Belt and Delta where tropical humidity will occasionally exist.  The end result is that wettest corn areas likely stay wet, while highest totals focus along eastern fringe of HRW wheat (and points east)

·         May Corn Down $.0025 at $3.90 ¾; July Down $.0050 at $3.9850. The funds were even inFriday’s trade

·         May SB Up $.0250 at $9.6975; July Up $.0250 at $9.7475.  The Funds sold 4 K SB; 1 K SBM and  4 K SBO

·         May Wheat Up $.0175 at $5.0950; July Up $.0125 at $5.1325  The Funds bought 5 K to close out the week 

CORN/SORGHUM                                ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;       

·        &​nbsp;Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 41.5 needed; 39.2 last week.  Milo—3.8 needed; 9.5 last week

·         T-storm Weather: Near-average rainfall of 0.75”-1.50” affects most second-crop corn in Brazil over the next week to limit the potential for dryness into next month

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions decrease 3,203 contracts

·         USDA Prospective Plantings: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. corn acreage, 88.9 mil (range 87.0-89.9) v. 90.6 mil last year

·         USDA Grain Stocks: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. corn stocks, 7.609 bbu (range 7.459-7.800) v. 7.008 bbu last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         May 2015 soybean futures closed at $9.67 ¼ on Fri.—the lowest Friday settlement price for the contract since Oct. 10

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 8.1 needed; 19.1 last week

·         USDA Prospective Plantings: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. soybean acreage, 86.0 mil (range 83.1-88.0) v. 83.7 last year

·         USDA Grain Stocks: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. soybean stocks, 1.348 bbu (range 1.250-1.413) v. 0.994 bbu last year

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 22.4 needed; 18.8 last week

·         USDA Prospective Plantings: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. all wheat acreage, 55.6 mil (range 55.0-56.8) v. 56.8 last year

·         USDA Grain Stocks: Avg. trade estimate for U.S. all wheat stocks, 1.141 bbu (range 1.083-1.200) v. 1.057 bbu last year

ENERGY

·         Futures are weaker:  CLK15, -$0.96 at $47.91; RBK, -.0177; NGK, -$.025 and HOK, -$.01534

·         A decidedly mixed tone was seen in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago added 1 5/8; New York up 1; Gulf climbed 2 ¼; Tampa eased 3; Dallas declined 1 ½; and LA was 1 ¾ lower at $1.64 ¾ per gallon

·         RINs were weaker: 2013’s down ¼ to 68-69 ½; 2014’s off 2 at 69-70 ½; and 2015’s eased 1 7/8 to 68-69 ½

·         The April RBOB/April Ethanol spread snapped in nearly 8 ¼ cents on Friday to $.3070/gal to $.3070

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY              &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                   

·         Choice boxed beef values were up 13-cents on Friday and are $6.29 higher vs. a week ago

·         Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report: All Hogs and Pigs, 107.2% of last year; Breeding, 102.2%; Marketing, 107.7%

·         The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value decreased $2.06 on Friday and is $2.88 lower vs. last week 

·         CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.42 lower at $60.39.  April futures up $0.15 at $61.125 and $0.735 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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